The Student Who “Joked” About Violence: Why Most School Threats Are Not What You Think

You never expect it to be your school, your hallway, or your student, until one sentence stops everything cold. Imagine this: a student under stress blurts out, “I’m going to shoot up the school,” during lunch. Chaos erupts, teachers panic, parents are notified, administrators call police. But what if this terrifying comment wasn’t a serious intent, and what if the real solution wasn’t punishment?

Research shows that most school threats are not carried out and when trained threat assessment teams investigate, they often find the comment was a transient expression of anger, frustration, or distress, not an imminent plan for violence. Studies using models like the Comprehensive School Threat Assessment Guidelines (CSTAG) found that over 99% of student threats were never acted upon, and only a tiny fraction led to discipline or arrest.

Threat assessment teams don’t rely on stereotypes or fear; threat assessments use structured interviews, evaluate behavior patterns, and distinguish between transient and substantive threats. This approach means most students can stay in school and get needed support rather than unnecessary exclusion or criminalization. 

The evidence is clear: connection-building and asking meaningful questions beats knee-jerk reactions. Resources like the National Center for School Safety’s School Threat Assessment Toolkit, developed by leading researchers, provide practical guidance for assessing and responding to threats while protecting student rights.

So next time someone dismisses a threat as “just a joke,” remember: the important question isn’t What did they say?, it’s Why did they say it, and what support do they need? That’s the heart of modern school threat assessment.